Demo · Harbour Lane is a fictional brand · every number here is generated, not real
Monday 19 October 2026

Good morning, Sam

Here is your week in plain language. Everything below updates overnight from your connected accounts.
ShopifyAmazonTikTok ShopMeta, Google & TikTok adsKlaviyoXero
Your headroom

What changed this week

    Quarterly KPI check

    New
    J
    Jack
    Your Headroom finance expert · Q3 2026 review

    Q3 was your strongest quarter: net sales up 38% on Q2, and contribution after ads held at 24–25%. That is a healthy base going into Black Friday.

    Two things to act on. First, TikTok Shop looks busy but keeps only 13 cents of every dollar after creator commission and returns. Cap the commission at 10% before you add more creators. Second, your cash dips closest to the safety line in the week of 16 November, when the Navy stock balance is due. Hold the Sand reorder until December: Headroom shows it fits from the week of 7 December.

    Next check: January 2026 results, sent in the second week of January.

    Month so far

    1–18 October · all channels
    Cash · next 13 weeks

    13-week cash forecast

    The cash you will actually have each week: payouts in, stock, ads and bills out. Profit is not cash. This is the screen to check before you spend.

    Cash in the bank, week by week

    Closing cashSafety line ($5,000)

    The safety line is about one month of fixed costs. Staying above it means one bad week can't stop you paying bills or stock.

    Week by week

    Hover a number to see what is in it
    Cash · decision check

    Can I afford this?

    Type in a spend and when it leaves your account. Headroom reruns your 13-week forecast and tells you whether you stay above your safety line.
    Cash · money on its way

    Payouts

    Sales you have made but can't spend yet. Marketplaces hold your money for days or weeks, so this is the gap between "sales" and "cash".

    Next payouts

    Amazon pays every 14 days and keeps a reserve until 7 days after delivery. TikTok Shop releases each order 7 days after delivery. Shopify Payments pays out 2 business days after the sale.

    Profit · 1–18 October

    True profit

    What you keep after landed product cost (unit price plus freight and duty), platform fees, fulfilment, ads and your fixed costs.

    Where each $100 of sales goes

    By product

    Landed cost per unit = factory price + freight + duty

    Contribution = net sales − landed product cost − platform fees − fulfilment − ad spend. It is what each product adds towards your fixed costs and profit.

    Shopify · Amazon · TikTok Shop

    Channels P&L

    The same profit maths for every place you sell, side by side, so you can see which channel really pays.
    Period

    Net sales by day

    ShopifyAmazonTikTok Shop

    P&L by channel

    Profit · fixed costs

    Break-even

    How much you need to sell each month before you make a profit, based on what you keep from each sale and what you spend no matter what.

    October so far

    Monthly fixed costs

    From Xero
    Profit · promotions

    Discount health

    Which discounts bring in new customers and which ones give away margin on orders you would have had anyway.

    Flags

    By discount code

    1–18 October · Shopify and TikTok Shop

    By customer group

    All channels

    Brand performance

    Period
    Gauges show the target, prorated to today

    Top KPIs

    Store performance

    Net sales by month

    ShopifyAmazonTikTok Shop

    October is projected from the pace so far.

    Meta · Google · TikTok · Amazon

    Ads

    Period

    Attribution by channel

    Each platform counts every sale it touched, so together they claim more than you actually sold. GA4 only credits the last click, so it is the stingy view. Your real sales are the referee.

    Campaign breakdown

    Target CPA $30 · target ROAS 3.0x

    CAC over time

    Blended CACTarget $30

    Creative running now

    Hook >30% · hold >10% · CPA <$30
    Customers · value

    CAC, LTV & retention

    What a new customer costs to win, what they are worth over time, and how many come back.

    CAC:LTV trend

    12-month LTVCAC

    A ratio above 3 means each customer is worth at least three times what it cost to win them. Under 2 means growth is getting expensive.

    Repeat purchase curve

    Share of new customers who placed a second order within N days.

    Cohort grid

    % of each month's new customers who have ordered again by month N
    Customers · NC vs EC

    New vs existing customers

    Who is buying: first-time customers (NC) or people who have bought before (EC).

    Net sales, new vs existing

    New customersExisting customers

    This month

    What new customers buy first

    Customers · where

    Geography

    Where your orders come from, what they are worth, and what it costs to ship there.

    By country

    Top US states

    Shipping cost per order is what you pay the 3PL and carrier, minus what the customer paid for shipping.

    Stock · all channels

    Inventory

    Stock across your 3PL, Amazon FBA and TikTok Shop, how long it lasts, and whether you can pay for the next order.

    Days of cover by product and location

    Reorder when cover drops below lead time + 14 days

    Reorders, checked against cash

    Plan · November 2026 to October 2027

    12-month plan

    Your next 12 months, built from your last 12: seasonality, how new customers come in, how many come back, and what it all costs. The first three months match your 13-week cash forecast.
    Case

    Net sales by month

    Base caseDownside to upside range

    Cash at the end of each month

    BaseDownsideUpsideSafety line $5,000

    Month by month

    What the forecast assumes

      How close past forecasts were

      Headroom re-forecasts on the 1st of every month and keeps score, so you can see how far to trust it.

      Plan · October 2026

      Targets vs actual

      Your monthly targets, prorated to today, and where the month is heading at the current pace.
      Plan · brands at your stage

      Benchmarks

      Targets set for brands doing $10–30k a month, not for $10M brands. Hover the "i" for what each number means.

      Demo ranges for illustration. In Headroom, ranges are set and reviewed by your finance expert.

      Plan · scenario

      What if?

      Move the sliders to see how a change would affect a typical month, compared with your current pace.

      Extra ad spend brings diminishing returns: doubling spend rarely doubles sales. This model assumes each extra dollar works about 70% as hard as the last.